US inflation update - 3.7% - way above Fed 2% target
The latest annualised CPI reading sits at 3.7% (June 2026), with prices running hotter since the US/Iran conflict began — averaging 4.9% annualised over that period, versus 4.2% across 2026 as a whole.
The tables below report monthly data but annualise the results by multipling monthly data by 12.
The full-term averages smooths this out. Trump's second term has averaged 3.2% annualised inflation so far (Feb 2025–Jun 2026), lower than the 5.0% averaged under Biden, which included a peak of 16.2% in June 2022 amid the post-pandemic and Ukraine-war price surge.
Trump's first term averaged just 1.9%, though it too had extremes — a low of -9.1% in April 2020, as COVID lockdowns crushed demand.
Heading into the 86-day countdown to the 2026 midterms, both the headline number and its volatility are likely to stay in focus as a measure of cost-of-living pressure on voters.
| Recent Inflation | ||
| Metric | CPI (monthly, annualised) | Dates |
| Latest annual inflation rate | 3.7% | Jun 2026 |
| Days until the mid-term 2026 election | 86 | 3 Nov 2026 |
| Average annualised inflation through 2026 | 4.2% | Jan 2026 - Jun 2026 |
| Average annualised inflation since US/Iran conflict | 4.9% | Mar 2026 - Jun 2026 |
| Inflation Under Trump Second Term | ||
| Metric | CPI (monthly, annualised) | Dates |
| Annual inflation before 2024 Presidential Election | 2.6% | Oct 2024 |
| Average annualised inflation under Trump second term | 3.2% | Feb 2025 - Jun 2026 |
| Max annualised inflation under Trump second term | 10.9% | Mar 2026 |
| Minimum annualised inflation under Trump second term | -5.0% | Jun 2026 |
| Inflation Under Biden | ||
| Metric | CPI (monthly, annualised) | Dates |
| Annual inflation before 2020 Presidential Election | 1.2% | Oct 2020 |
| Average annualised inflation under Biden term | 5.0% | Feb 2021 - Dec 2024 |
| Max annualised inflation under Biden term | 16.2% | Jun 2022 |
| Minimum annualised inflation under Biden term | -0.5% | Jun 2024 |
| Inflation Under Trump First Term | ||
| Metric | CPI (monthly, annualised) | Dates |
| Annual inflation before 2016 Presidential Election | 1.7% | Oct 2016 |
| Average annualised inflation under Trump first term | 1.9% | Feb 2017 - Dec 2020 |
| Max annualised inflation under Trump first term | 6.3% | Sep 2017 |
| Minimum annualised inflation under Trump first term | -9.1% | Apr 2020 |