US Gas Price Update: Trump vs Biden and the Midterms
With three weeks until America's midterm elections, petrol prices are nearly 40% higher than a year ago. Updated official statistics show Trump's average price advantage over Biden has almost disappeared.
With just 22 days until the US midterm elections, petrol prices are becoming an increasingly difficult issue for President Donald Trump.
The latest official weekly price of regular gasoline was $4.35 per gallon on 5 October, up from $4.08 when Benchmark Analytics last reviewed the figures in August. Prices are approximately 39% higher than a year ago, despite falling 11 cents in the latest week.
The increase is particularly striking when viewed over the year. Average petrol prices in 2026 have reached $3.84 per gallon, compared with $3.13 over the corresponding 40 weeks of 2025 — an increase of 22.5%. Since the US–Iran conflict began in March, the weekly average has been $4.08.
Trump versus Biden
The presidential comparison has narrowed considerably.
Under Trump's second term, the average petrol price has increased to $3.43.
That remains marginally below the $3.46 average recorded under Joe Biden.
The comparison with Trump's first presidency is even more striking. Between January 2017 and January 2021, regular petrol averaged $2.48 per gallon, including the sharp price collapse during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Biden experienced the higher single-week peak, with prices reaching $5.01 in June 2022 following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Trump's second-term peak so far has been $4.50 in May 2026.
These are nominal prices, not adjusted for inflation, and the comparisons do not establish how much responsibility individual presidents bear for movements in global oil markets.
The midterm problem
In the week before Trump's November 2024 election victory, petrol cost $3.07 per gallon. It now costs approximately $1.29 more — an increase of 42%.
The Iran conflict has disrupted international oil supplies and shipping. The price pressures have been compounded by refinery constraints and disruptions to Russian energy infrastructure.
The impact is uneven. California motorists are paying $6.23 per gallon, compared with $3.87 in Texas. Diesel, particularly important for freight and agriculture, is averaging $6.20 nationally.
The US Energy Information Administration now forecasts average gasoline prices of $3.91 for 2026 and $3.56 in 2027. It expects little immediate relief during October.
With only three weeks until polling day, petrol prices remain a highly visible test of the administration's economic performance.
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BENCHMARK ANALYTICS | US ECONOMY
US Gas Prices: Trump vs Biden
2026 midterm update | Official observations through 5 October
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*Second term to 5 Oct 2026. Term averages are simple means of weekly national prices in nominal US dollars; prices are not inflation-adjusted.
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WHAT HAPPENS NEXT?
The EIA forecasts average national regular gasoline prices of
$3.91 in 2026 and $3.56 in 2027,
with little immediate relief expected in October.
Forecast published 6 October 2026.
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Sources: US Energy Information Administration (EIA),
Weekly U.S. Regular All Formulations Retail Gasoline Prices;
Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update;
Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2026.
Compiled by Benchmark Analytics, 12 October 2026.
EIA weekly history | EIA current prices | EIA outlook |