Trump's tariff policy has not hurt Australian exports - new data
One year after the United States announced sweeping new tariffs on imported goods, there is little evidence that Australia's merchandise exports have been hit, partly because many goods are exempted.
ABS merchandise trade data released today shows Australia's total goods exports increased from $45.6 billion in June 2025 to $49.6 billion in June 2026, an increase of $4.0 billion, or around 8.8 per cent. This suggests Australian exporters continued to record strong growth over the period.
Latest period: Jun-26. "pp" = percentage points. |
Exports to the United States also increased, rising from $2.13 billion to $2.30 billion over the same period. While exports to the US grew by approximately $170 million, the United States' share of Australia's total goods exports was virtually unchanged, moving from 4.67 per cent to 4.63 per cent. A movement of 0.03 percentage points is too small, by itself, to suggest any meaningful structural shift.
The most significant change occurred in exports to China. Australian exports to China increased from $16.1 billion to $19.0 billion, a monthly increase of almost $2.94 billion. China's share of Australia's merchandise exports rose from 35.3 per cent to 38.3 per cent, a material increase of just over 3 percentage points.
These figures do not establish whether individual industries or products have been affected by US tariffs. They simply indicate that, at the aggregate level, Australia's merchandise exports have continued to grow over the twelve months since the tariffs were announced. Based on the available trade data, there is no obvious evidence that the US tariff policy has materially reduced Australia's overall export performance. One qualification is that while these figures are seasonally adjusted, they are monthly data.
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