RBA cash rate - predicted to peak in March 2027
The RBA handing down its next interest rate decision tomorrow. Interest rate futures imply there will be no change to the current 4.35% target rate.
As it stands, market pricing suggests some probability of rises in either the November or December meetings this year and/or in February 2027.
The market is predicting the cash rate will peak at 4.50% by the 23 March 2027 meeting.
From May 2027 onward, the curve turns. Futures begin pricing modest cuts at each subsequent meeting, taking the implied rate back down to around 4.34% by 28 September 2027.
| RBA Cash Rate — Market-Implied Pricing (7 Aug 2026) | |||
| Meeting Date | Direction | Implied Rate | Implied Move |
| 11 Aug 2026 | No change | 4.35% | 0.0bp |
| 29 Sep 2026 | No change | 4.35% | 0.0bp |
| 3 Nov 2026 | Increase | 4.46% | +10.7bp |
| 8 Dec 2026 | Increase | 4.47% | +1.0bp |
| 9 Feb 2027 | Increase | 4.50% | +3.2bp |
| 23 Mar 2027 (peak) | Increase | 4.50% | +0.3bp |
| 4 May 2027 | Decrease | 4.47% | -3.0bp |
| 22 Jun 2027 | Decrease | 4.47% | -0.7bp |
| 10 Aug 2027 | Decrease | 4.45% | -1.4bp |
| 28 Sep 2027 | Decrease | 4.34% | -10.8bp |
| 2 Nov 2027 | Increase | 4.43% | +8.6bp |
| 14 Dec 2027 | Decrease | 4.39% | -3.9bp |
Market Data Date: 7 Aug 2026. Current cash rate: 4.35%. Implied Rate = 100 − futures settlement price. Implied Move reflects the change priced for that specific meeting, net of moves already priced for prior meetings. Row for 23 Mar 2027 marks the priced peak (4.50%).
- Please note these predictions are based on a proprietary pricing model, of which, the mathematics is derived from AI models and is not independently verified. It is provided as information only and should not be relied upon for financial decisions.