Could Macquarie become Australia’s fourth-largest mortgage bank by 2030?

At recent growth rates, Macquarie Bank is on a path to overtake ANZ’s principal banking entity in both Australian mortgages and domestic deposits around 2030. But the result is a mechanical extrapolation, not a forecast.

The latest Australian Prudential Regulation Authority Monthly Authorised Deposit-taking Institution Statistics provide a striking measure of Macquarie Bank’s expansion into mainstream Australian banking.

At 31 July 2026, Macquarie Bank reported $113.926 billion of owner-occupied housing loans and $72.007 billion of investment housing loans. Combined, that gives an Australian mortgage book of $185.933 billion.

Australia and New Zealand Banking Group Limited — the principal ANZ banking entity — reported $218.298 billion of owner-occupied mortgages and $113.644 billion of investor mortgages, or $331.942 billion combined.

Macquarie is therefore already equivalent to 56.0 per cent of ANZ’s mortgage book, with a gap of $146.009 billion.

In July 2024, Macquarie had $121.874 billion of mortgages. By July 2025 this had risen to $147.741 billion and by July 2026 to $185.933 billion. Growth was therefore 21.2 per cent in the year to July 2025 and 25.9 per cent in the year to July 2026.

Across the full two years, that is a compound annual growth rate of 23.5 per cent.

ANZ’s corresponding mortgage book increased from $301.522 billion in July 2024 to $318.217 billion in July 2025 and $331.942 billion in July 2026. Its annual growth rates were 5.5 per cent and 4.3 per cent, producing a two-year compound annual growth rate of 4.9 per cent.

What happens if those growth rates continue?

To calculate how long before Macquarie overtakes ANZ, Benchmark Analytics uses the two-year compound annual growth rate assumption, rather than simply extrapolating the latest 12-month result. The two-year measure reduces the influence of an unusually strong or weak single year.

The calculation starts with the July 2026 balances and assumes each bank continues growing at its respective two-year compound rate.

Mathematically, the crossover time is:

t = ln(ANZ starting balance / Macquarie starting balance) ÷ ln[(1 + Macquarie growth rate) / (1 + ANZ growth rate)]

For mortgages, inserting the July 2026 balances and growth rates gives:

• Macquarie starting balance: $185.933 billion
• ANZ starting balance: $331.942 billion
• Macquarie assumed annual growth: 23.5 per cent
• ANZ assumed annual growth: 4.9 per cent

The two projected balances become equal approximately 3.55 years after July 2026 — around February 2030.

Using only the most recent 12-month growth rates — 25.9 per cent for Macquarie and 4.3 per cent for ANZ — produces an earlier crossover, around September 2029.

Deposits point to a similar result

The analysis uses APRA’s “total residents deposits” measure. This is deliberately broader than household deposits: it includes deposits from resident households, non-financial businesses, financial institutions, governments and community service organisations.

Macquarie’s total resident deposits increased from $158.599 billion in July 2024 to $190.345 billion in July 2025 and $237.932 billion in July 2026.

That equates to growth of 20.0 per cent and 25.0 per cent in the two successive years and a two-year compound annual rate of 22.5 per cent.

ANZ’s resident deposits increased from $398.961 billion to $415.070 billion and then $438.306 billion over the same dates. Its two-year compound annual growth rate was 4.8 per cent.

Macquarie currently has deposits equal to 54.3 per cent of ANZ’s balance, leaving a gap of $200.374 billion.

Compounding the respective two-year growth rates produces a crossover about 3.92 years from July 2026, or around July 2030. Using only the latest 12-month rates gives a slightly earlier result of approximately March 2030.

The assumption behind “2030” is important

These are not forecasts of what either bank will actually report in 2030.

They are constant-percentage-growth scenarios. They assume Macquarie can continue increasing an ever-larger balance sheet at more than 20 per cent a year while ANZ continues growing at approximately 5 per cent.

That is demanding. A 23.5 per cent annual growth rate applied to a $186 billion mortgage book requires progressively larger dollar additions each year.

A useful sensitivity test is therefore to assume that the latest annual dollar increase continues rather than the percentage growth rate compounding.

Over the year to July 2026, Macquarie added $38.192 billion of mortgages while ANZ added $13.725 billion. If that approximately $24.5 billion annual rate of gap-closing remained constant in dollar terms, Macquarie would catch ANZ in about six years, around July 2032, rather than 2030.

For deposits the distinction is greater. The latest annual dollar increases were $47.587 billion for Macquarie and $23.236 billion for ANZ. Holding that dollar differential constant pushes the crossover to approximately October 2034.

The 2030 result should consequently be read as an answer to a specific question: what happens if the recent percentage growth rates continue to compound?

One important qualification: ANZ owns Suncorp Bank

There is also an institutional-definition issue.

APRA’s monthly statistics report individual authorised deposit-taking institutions. Macquarie Bank Limited and Australia and New Zealand Banking Group Limited therefore appear as separate entities.

But ANZ acquired Suncorp Bank in 2024. Suncorp Bank is now operated through Norfina Limited, which remains a separately licensed authorised deposit-taking institution and is therefore separately reported in APRA’s monthly institution-level data.

Accordingly, this analysis supports the statement that, at recent growth rates, Macquarie Bank could overtake Australia and New Zealand Banking Group Limited as an individual authorised deposit-taking institution around 2030.

It does not establish that Macquarie Group will become larger than the consolidated ANZ Group, which also owns Suncorp Bank.

That distinction matters for anyone describing the result as Macquarie “breaking into the Big Four”.

The narrower conclusion is nevertheless significant. Macquarie has moved from being a relatively small participant in Australian retail banking to a position where, if anything approaching its recent growth differential persists, ANZ’s traditional fourth-place position in APRA’s institution-level mortgage and deposit rankings could come under direct challenge around the turn of the decade.

Source: Australian Prudential Regulation Authority, Monthly Authorised Deposit-taking Institution Statistics, July 2026 and historical back-series. Balances are reported in millions of Australian dollars. Mortgage balances in this analysis are the sum of APRA’s owner-occupied and investment housing lending categories. Crossover dates are Benchmark Analytics calculations and are scenario estimates, not APRA forecasts.