How bad is the US fiscal position?
In assessing the fiscal position of the US Federal Government, total government revenue provides a useful benchmark for assessing vulnerability because it measures the government’s own capacity to fund its commitments on current tax settings.
The latest data are striking.
In Q1 2026, federal outlays (total government spending and transfers) were equal to 145.2% of revenue.
Put differently, the government was spending about $1.45 for every $1 it received. Interest costs alone were equivalent to 20.8% of revenue, while government debt held by the public was 5.36 times annualised federal revenue.
The deterioration is particularly clear over time. During the 1970s, debt averaged only 1.43 times revenue. That rose to 1.79 times in the 1980s and 2.40 times in the 1990s. After declining somewhat in the 2000s, it surged to 4.03 times in the 2010s and has averaged 5.20 times so far in the 2020s.
Presidential comparisons tell a similar story. Debt averaged 2.02 times revenue during Clinton’s second term, 3.73 times during Obama’s first term, 4.59 times during Trump’s first term and 5.15 times under Biden. So far under Trump’s second term it has averaged 5.27 times.
Interest costs are now adding another layer of vulnerability. They averaged just 13.1% of revenue during Obama’s second term and 14.5% during Trump’s first. Under Trump’s second term so far, the figure is 20.8%.
The fiscal problem is therefore not simply that debt is large. It is that debt, spending and interest costs have all become increasingly large relative to the federal government’s capacity to raise revenue.
| Federal Fiscal Ratios — Q1 2026 | |||
| Quarter | Outlays / Revenue (%) | Interest / Revenue (%) | Debt / Revenue (x) |
| Q1 2026 | 145.2% | 20.8% | 5.36x |
| Federal Fiscal Ratios — By Decade | |||
| Decade | Outlays / Revenue (%) | Interest / Revenue (%) | Debt / Revenue (x) |
| 1970s | 123.3% | 18.1% | 1.43x |
| 1980s | 127.3% | 25.2% | 1.79x |
| 1990s | 116.7% | 23.9% | 2.40x |
| 2000s | 120.7% | 15.6% | 2.07x |
| 2010s | 132.7% | 14.4% | 4.03x |
| 2020s | 149.3% | 17.3% | 5.20x |
| Federal Fiscal Ratios — By Presidential Term | |||
| President / Term | Outlays / Revenue (%) | Interest / Revenue (%) | Debt / Revenue (x) |
| Nixon | 122.1% | 17.7% | 1.46x |
| Ford | 130.9% | 18.4% | 1.42x |
| Carter | 119.3% | 18.9% | 1.38x |
| Reagan I | 129.8% | 24.8% | 1.57x |
| Reagan II | 128.2% | 26.7% | 2.06x |
| Bush I | 125.3% | 26.6% | 2.34x |
| Clinton I | 120.0% | 24.4% | 2.58x |
| Clinton II | 99.8% | 19.5% | 2.02x |
| Bush II – Term 1 | 117.4% | 15.7% | 1.92x |
| Bush II – Term 2 | 119.1% | 15.0% | 2.00x |
| Obama I | 157.0% | 15.9% | 3.73x |
| Obama II | 120.6% | 13.1% | 3.91x |
| Trump I | 141.8% | 14.5% | 4.59x |
| Biden | 144.3% | 17.0% | 5.15x |
| Trump II | 137.6% | 20.8% | 5.27x |