Home loan data - mixed picture post abolition of negative gearing

The Australian Bureau of Statistics has reported that the number of new home loans fell 5.4% in the June quarter, to 134,225. The value of new lending fell 5.2%, or $5.4 billion, following a 3.4% decline in the March quarter.

Investors led the quarterly retreat. Investor loan numbers fell 8.6%, the largest quarterly decline since September 2022. New South Wales recorded a 15.5% fall, Victoria 14.2% and Queensland 10.1%.

The weakness follows three Reserve Bank cash-rate increases during 2026 and follows the Government's announced abolition of negative gearing and removal of concessional CGT.

However, the annual comparison provides some important perspective. In the tables below, based on unadjusted data, total loan numbers were broadly unchanged between June quarter 2025 and June quarter 2026. Investor loan numbers were still 2.5% higher, while non-first-home-buyer owner-occupier loans were down 2.7% and first-home-buyer numbers were virtually unchanged.

The more striking result is that loan values remain substantially higher despite stagnant loan numbers. Across the categories in the table, lending value increased 6.6% over the year to $99.0 billion. First-home-buyer lending value rose 9.8%, investor lending 7.9%, and other owner-occupier lending 4.1%.

The June quarter therefore looks less like a collapse in housing finance than a significant cyclical slowdown. Fewer loans are being written following higher interest rates, but the average amount being borrowed remains considerably higher than a year ago.

New home loan commitments — number Segment Jun-25 Jun-26 Difference Change Owner occupied — non-first-home buyers 54,476 52,980 -1,496 -2.7% Owner occupied — first-home buyers 30,167 30,129 -38 -0.1% Investor 52,707 54,046 +1,339 +2.5% Total 137,350 137,155 -195 -0.1%

New home loan commitments — value Segment Jun-25 Jun-26 Difference Change Owner occupied — non-first-home buyers $40.7bn $42.3bn +$1.7bn +4.1% Owner occupied — first-home buyers $16.7bn $18.4bn +$1.6bn +9.8% Investor $35.5bn $38.3bn +$2.8bn +7.9% Total $92.9bn $99.0bn +$6.1bn +6.6%