Look under the hood: comparing Australian and US inflation

Headline inflation is 3.5% in Australia and 3.4% in the US. But Australia's underlying inflation is 3.6%, compared with US core inflation of just 2.4%.

Australia and the United States currently have remarkably similar headline inflation rates. But look beneath the headline and the picture changes.

Australian consumer prices rose 3.5% over the year to July, while US inflation was 3.4% in August. On headline inflation, there is almost nothing separating the two economies.

Underlying inflation tells a different story.

Australia's trimmed mean inflation is 3.6%, slightly higher than headline inflation and unchanged from June. The trimmed mean removes unusually large price movements at both ends of the CPI distribution, giving a better indication of broad inflationary pressure.

In the US, core inflation is 2.4%, a full percentage point below headline inflation. Core CPI is constructed differently—it simply excludes food and energy—but it similarly attempts to look through particularly volatile prices.

Energy helps explain the divergence. US gasoline prices jumped 3.9% in August alone, accounting for more than one-third of the monthly increase in headline CPI.

Australia's pressure looks broader. Housing prices are 5.0% higher over the year, including a 5.7% increase in new dwelling prices, while food prices are up 3.2%.

The distinction matters for monetary policy.

Temporary energy shocks can eventually reverse. Broad-based domestic inflation is harder to eliminate.

So while Australia and America currently have almost identical headline inflation, Australia appears to have the more persistent underlying inflation problem.

Inflation: Australia versus the United States
Latest annual consumer price inflation
Economy Headline Underlying* Gap Key pressure
Australia 3.5% 3.6% +0.1 pp Housing
United States 3.4% 2.4% −1.0 pp Energy
The key difference: Australia's underlying inflation is slightly above its headline rate. In the US, underlying inflation is a full percentage point below headline inflation.
Sources: Australian Bureau of Statistics; US Bureau of Labor Statistics. Australia: July 2026. United States: August 2026. *Australia uses trimmed mean inflation; US figure is core CPI excluding food and energy. The measures are conceptually similar but are calculated differently.

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