Business turnover still weak - latest turnover figures released
Data alert | Business Turnover Indicator - April 2025
Another soft monthly turnover result across industries confirms the economy remains subdued, increasing the likelihood that the Reserve Bank will deliver a 50 basis point interest rate cut at its upcoming meeting scheduled for 7-8 July.
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) monthly turnover series provides an ongoing snapshot of economic activity. Data released today shows turnover increased by just 0.2% in April, slightly above the 0.1% growth seen in February, but significantly below the peak of 1.5% recorded in November last year.
Over the past year, manufacturing has been the strongest-performing sector, achieving growth of 11.5%. Conversely, mining has experienced a downturn, contracting by 3.1%, driven primarily by a significant 24.5% decline in coal mining turnover.
A detailed breakdown of one-year growth rates by industry and sub-industry is presented in the chart below.
Brief description of the ABS methodology
The Monthly Business Turnover Indicator, produced by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), measures monthly changes in business turnover using data collected by the Australian Taxation Office (ATO) via Business Activity Statements (BAS). Businesses with an annual GST turnover of $20 million or more, along with some smaller businesses voluntarily reporting monthly, are included, ensuring coverage of a significant share of economic activity.
The ATO provides this data primarily for GST administration purposes. Therefore, the ABS applies several transformation processes to align the data with the Australian System of National Accounts' concept of market output. These transformations involve:
Imputation: Missing monthly data from businesses is estimated based on their historical submissions, adjusted for business continuity and industry growth trends. Imputations are replaced when actual data becomes available.
Mapping to the ABS Economic Units Model: BAS data, reported at the Australian Business Number (ABN) level, is mapped to the ABS Business Register’s Type of Activity Units (TAUs) to enhance industry classification accuracy and coherence with other ABS statistics.
Data Validation: Large anomalies, such as significant asset sales, irregular payments, or reporting errors, are identified and adjusted to reduce distortions in monthly movements.
Seasonal adjustments are applied using standard ABS procedures to remove regular seasonal and calendar-related variations, improving comparability across months.
The indicator covers thirteen major industry divisions, excluding sectors where BAS data does not adequately represent market output. Monthly movements and index values (base period: July 2019) are published, starting from January 2010, in both original and seasonally adjusted terms.
Privacy and confidentiality are strictly maintained, and data revisions may occur as new information emerges or methodological enhancements are implemented.
Notes on the use of Index for time series analysis
To present the data consistently, the ABS uses an index format rather than raw dollar figures. This allows for a more meaningful comparison over time. The base year for the index is set at 100 (currently June 2019), and each subsequent month’s data shows how turnover has changed relative to that benchmark. For instance, an index value of 115 in a given month would mean turnover has risen by 15% since the base period. This method neutralises the effect of differing absolute sizes between industries and focuses attention on growth dynamics rather than scale.
One of the main strengths of using an index is that it facilitates comparison across vastly different industry types. Retail and mining, for example, operate on different scales and respond to different economic drivers. By using an index, analysts and policymakers can observe relative performance—identifying which industries are expanding more rapidly, recovering more slowly, or declining in the wake of economic shocks. The monthly frequency also enables early detection of turning points in business activity that might not yet appear in quarterly or annual GDP figures.
For businesses, investors, and public officials, the Monthly Business Turnover Indicator serves as a useful barometer of sector-specific momentum. It is particularly valuable in periods of rapid change—such as post-pandemic recovery or during inflationary cycles—when traditional measures like GDP or employment may lag. Although the data is experimental and subject to revision, its timeliness and consistency make it one of the most useful tools available for tracking short-term economic trends across Australia's diverse industry base.