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# US inflation update - 3.7% - way above Fed 2% target
- URL: https://www.benchmarkanalytics.com.au/us-inflation-update-3-7-way-above-fed-2-target/
- Published: 2026-08-09T21:00:15.000Z
- Updated: 2026-08-09T21:00:14.000Z
- Author: Nick Hossack

The latest annualised CPI reading sits at **3.7%** (June 2026), with prices running hotter since the US/Iran conflict began — averaging **4.9%** annualised over that period, versus **4.2%** across 2026 as a whole.

The tables below report monthly data but annualise the results by multipling monthly data by 12.

The full-term averages smooths this out. Trump's second term has averaged **3.2%** annualised inflation so far (Feb 2025–Jun 2026), lower than the **5.0%** averaged under Biden, which included a peak of **16.2%** in June 2022 amid the post-pandemic and Ukraine-war price surge. 

Trump's first term averaged just **1.9%**, though it too had extremes — a low of **\-9.1%** in April 2020, as COVID lockdowns crushed demand.

Heading into the 86-day countdown to the 2026 midterms, both the headline number and its volatility are likely to stay in focus as a measure of cost-of-living pressure on voters.

| Recent Inflation                                    |                           |                     |
| --------------------------------------------------- | ------------------------- | ------------------- |
| Metric                                              | CPI (monthly, annualised) | Dates               |
| Latest annual inflation rate                        | 3.7%                      | Jun 2026            |
| Days until the mid-term 2026 election               | 86                        | 3 Nov 2026          |
| Average annualised inflation through 2026           | 4.2%                      | Jan 2026 - Jun 2026 |
| Average annualised inflation since US/Iran conflict | 4.9%                      | Mar 2026 - Jun 2026 |

|  |
|  |

| Inflation Under Trump Second Term                    |                           |                     |
| ---------------------------------------------------- | ------------------------- | ------------------- |
| Metric                                               | CPI (monthly, annualised) | Dates               |
| Annual inflation before 2024 Presidential Election   | 2.6%                      | Oct 2024            |
| Average annualised inflation under Trump second term | 3.2%                      | Feb 2025 - Jun 2026 |
| Max annualised inflation under Trump second term     | 10.9%                     | Mar 2026            |
| Minimum annualised inflation under Trump second term | \-5.0%                    | Jun 2026            |

|  |
|  |

| Inflation Under Biden                              |                           |                     |
| -------------------------------------------------- | ------------------------- | ------------------- |
| Metric                                             | CPI (monthly, annualised) | Dates               |
| Annual inflation before 2020 Presidential Election | 1.2%                      | Oct 2020            |
| Average annualised inflation under Biden term      | 5.0%                      | Feb 2021 - Dec 2024 |
| Max annualised inflation under Biden term          | 16.2%                     | Jun 2022            |
| Minimum annualised inflation under Biden term      | \-0.5%                    | Jun 2024            |

|  |
|  |

| Inflation Under Trump First Term                    |                           |                     |
| --------------------------------------------------- | ------------------------- | ------------------- |
| Metric                                              | CPI (monthly, annualised) | Dates               |
| Annual inflation before 2016 Presidential Election  | 1.7%                      | Oct 2016            |
| Average annualised inflation under Trump first term | 1.9%                      | Feb 2017 - Dec 2020 |
| Max annualised inflation under Trump first term     | 6.3%                      | Sep 2017            |
| Minimum annualised inflation under Trump first term | \-9.1%                    | Apr 2020            |