> ## Content Index > Fetch the complete content index at: https://www.benchmarkanalytics.com.au/llms.txt > Use this file to discover other available public pages before exploring further. # Upcoming Victorian State Election - Brief State of Play - URL: https://www.benchmarkanalytics.com.au/upcoming-victorian-state-election-brief-state-of-play/ - Published: 2026-11-08T22:13:06.000Z - Updated: 2026-11-08T22:13:06.000Z - Description: Victoria votes on 28 November 2026 after 12 years of Labor government. A guide to the major parties, leading figures, election issues, polling and possible parliamentary arrangements. - Author: Nick Hossack - Tags: Victorian State Election, Ben Carroll, One Nation, Warren Pickering, Dan Andrews, Jacinta Allen, Jess Wilson Victoria goes to the polls on **Saturday, 28 November 2026**, in an election that will determine whether Labor extends its 12 years in government or the Liberal–National Coalition returns to office. The election is particularly interesting because of three developments: the replacement of Victoria's Premier just four months before polling day, a substantial deterioration in Labor's opinion polling, and the emergence of Pauline Hanson's One Nation as a significant electoral force. ## When is the election? Victoria has fixed four-year parliamentary terms, with elections normally held on the last Saturday in November. All 88 seats in the Legislative Assembly and 40 seats in the Legislative Council will be contested. The lower house determines government, with **45 seats required for a majority**. The upper house has eight regions electing five members each. Early voting begins on 18 November. Voting is compulsory for enrolled electors. An important electoral reform takes effect this year: group voting tickets have been abolished for the upper house, ending a system under which parties could direct preferences through registered tickets. ## Who are the main political players? **Labor – Ben Carroll** Labor has governed Victoria since November 2014\. Ben Carroll became Premier on 28 July 2026, replacing Jacinta Allan after she lost the support of Labor's parliamentary caucus. Carroll previously served as Deputy Premier and Education Minister. His campaign emphasises community safety, public services, economic management and a change of direction following controversies under earlier Labor leadership. **Liberal–National Coalition – Jess Wilson and Danny O'Brien** Jess Wilson became Liberal leader and Opposition Leader in November 2025\. Elected to Parliament in 2022, she represents Kew and is also Shadow Treasurer. Danny O'Brien leads the Nationals, which concentrate particularly on regional Victoria. The Coalition's campaign emphasises crime reduction, lower taxation, fiscal restraint, improved infrastructure and government accountability. **One Nation – Warren Pickering** Pauline Hanson's One Nation has emerged as a major development in Victorian politics. Its Victorian leader, Warren Pickering, is contesting Pakenham. The party advocates lower taxes, tougher criminal justice policies, reduced government expenditure and changes to energy policy. **Greens – Ellen Sandell** The Victorian Greens are led by Melbourne MP Ellen Sandell. Their policies emphasise public housing, renters' rights, renewable energy, climate action and expanded public services. ## Recent political history Labor won state elections in 2014, 2018 and 2022 under Daniel Andrews. The 2022 election delivered Labor 56 seats, the Coalition 28 and the Greens four. Labor won the statewide two-party-preferred vote 55–45. Andrews resigned in September 2023 and was succeeded by Jacinta Allan. The government's recent history includes Victoria's extensive COVID-19 restrictions, major infrastructure expenditure, the cancellation of the 2026 Commonwealth Games hosting arrangements, and controversy surrounding construction costs and alleged misconduct on government projects. Allan's resignation in July 2026 followed mounting political pressure over the management of these issues. Carroll subsequently established a royal commission into integrity in major public construction projects. Its first substantive public hearings commence on 9 November, during the election campaign. ## What are the major election issues? **1\. Government debt and taxation** Victoria's public finances are central to the campaign. The Victorian Auditor-General reports that general government gross debt reached **$203.3 billion at 30 June 2026**, with forecasts indicating $244.9 billion by June 2030. Although the government recorded an operating surplus in 2025–26, it continued to incur fiscal cash deficits. The Coalition proposes expenditure restraint, public-sector staffing controls and reductions in several state taxes. Labor argues that public investment and essential services remain priorities. **2\. Crime and community safety** Youth crime, home invasions, car theft and bail laws are prominent election issues. Labor has promised recruitment of 1,500 police officers. The Coalition proposes 3,000 additional officers, tougher bail provisions and expanded sentencing measures. One Nation also advocates stricter criminal justice policies, while the Greens emphasise prevention and rehabilitation. **3\. Infrastructure and the Suburban Rail Loop** The Suburban Rail Loop has become a major dividing line. Labor supports continuing the project while seeking $2 billion in savings. The Coalition proposes pausing and reviewing it. One Nation proposes cancellation. The competing priorities concern infrastructure benefits, construction costs and alternative uses of public funds. **4\. Housing and cost of living** Housing affordability, rents, land taxes and household expenses feature heavily. The Coalition promises land-tax reductions and greater stamp-duty concessions for first-home buyers. Labor emphasises housing construction and transport cost relief. The Greens advocate rent controls and additional public housing. **5\. Integrity and government accountability** The construction-industry royal commission has brought concerns about procurement, trade union conduct and public spending into the election. The question is not simply whether public projects are delivered, but whether taxpayers receive value for money. **6\. Indigenous Treaty and energy policy** Labor supports Victoria's Treaty framework with First Peoples. The Coalition and One Nation propose its repeal. Energy policy also divides the parties, particularly over renewable infrastructure, gas development and net-zero targets. ## What are the latest opinion polls? A DemosAU/PremierNational poll conducted from 30 October to 5 November, involving 1,562 voters, reported: - Coalition: **33%** - One Nation: **21%** - Labor: **18%** - Greens: **17%** The Coalition led Labor **56–44 on two-party-preferred voting**. A separate Roy Morgan poll conducted on 26–29 October, involving 3,610 electors, also recorded a 56–44 Coalition lead, with Coalition primary support at 29.5%, Labor at 22.5% and One Nation at 22%. These figures contrast sharply with Labor's 55–45 victory in 2022\. However, statewide polling does not reliably identify how individual seats will be distributed. ## Who could form government? The established Coalition consists of the Liberal and National parties. It requires 45 lower-house seats to obtain a majority. If no party or established coalition secures that number, a minority government supported by independents or smaller parties becomes possible. **One Nation's electoral performance is the major complication.** Its vote could affect preference distributions and create three-way contests, particularly in regional Victoria and outer Melbourne. Its strong statewide primary vote does not necessarily translate proportionately into lower-house seats. The decisive questions are therefore how many seats the Liberal–National Coalition wins, how Labor's vote holds up in individual electorates, and whether One Nation or other crossbench MPs acquire sufficient seats to influence government formation. The 2026 election will test both Victoria's longstanding Labor dominance and the changing structure of Australian party politics. BENCHMARK ANALYTICS | ELECTION 2026 ## Victorian Election: Latest Polling Primary vote intention, per cent | Party | DemosAU30 Oct–5 Nov | Roy Morgan26–29 Oct | | -------------------------- | ------------------- | ------------------- | | Liberal–National Coalition | 33% | 29.5% | | One Nation | 21% | 22% | | Labor | 18% | 22.5% | | Greens | 17% | 12.5% | | Others / Independents | 11% | 13.5% | ### Two-party-preferred vote 56% 44% CoalitionLabor Both polls recorded a Coalition–Labor two-party-preferred split of 56–44. Sources: [Roy Morgan](https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/10373-victorian-state-voting-intention-october-2026?ref=benchmarkanalytics.com.au)and DemosAU/PremierNational polling reported 9 November 2026\. Samples: 3,610 and 1,562 respectively. Results are snapshots of voting intention, not forecasts of parliamentary seats.