# Benchmark Analytics
> Independent economic, financial services and regulatory analysis for government relations, corporate affairs and policy, plus Political Data Alerts.
Public Ghost content for AI and LLM tooling. Use `/llms-full.txt` for consolidated page and post context.
Append `.md` to any post or page URL to get the content in Markdown (for example, `/example-post.md`).

## Pages
- [About Benchmark Analytics](https://www.benchmarkanalytics.com.au/about.md) - Benchmark Analytics is an Australian economic, financial services and regulatory consultancy preparing high-quality analysis, reports and submissions for organisations engaged in public policy, regulation and economic reform. The service focuses on clear reasoning, strong evidence, and concise expr…
- [AFR articles](https://www.benchmarkanalytics.com.au/afr-and-the-australian-articles.md) - The teals are strangely silent on Albanese's flights Article | The Australian Financial Review 30 October 2024 | Nick Hossack Link to article Greens bank bashing is juvenile Article | The Australian Financial Review 15 August 2023 | Nick Hossack Attacks on PwC ideological and overblown Article | Th…
- [APRA Monthly ADI Statistics](https://www.benchmarkanalytics.com.au/apra-monthly-adi-statistics.md)
- [Australian Banking & Regulation](https://www.benchmarkanalytics.com.au/banking.md) - Benchmark Analytics provides independent analysis of the politics, regulation and economics of Australian banking. Coverage focuses on the issues that matter to financial institutions, government and regulatory affairs teams, policymakers and other professionals operating in a heavily regulated ind…
- [Contact](https://www.benchmarkanalytics.com.au/contact.md) - Subscriptions & Editorial For questions about Political Alerts, other newsletters, or media/republishing inquiries: info@benchmarkanalytics.com.au Consulting Enquiries For consulting work, speaking engagements, or advisory projects: nick@benchmarkanalytics.com.au We aim to respond within one busine…
- [Data](https://www.benchmarkanalytics.com.au/data.md)
- [Australian Insurance & Regulation](https://www.benchmarkanalytics.com.au/insurance.md) - Benchmark Analytics provides independent analysis of the politics, regulation and economics of Australian insurance. Coverage focuses on the issues affecting insurers, financial institutions, government and regulatory affairs teams, policymakers and other professionals operating in a heavily regula…
- [Australian Payments & Regulation](https://www.benchmarkanalytics.com.au/payments.md) - Benchmark Analytics provides independent analysis of the politics, regulation and economics of Australian payments. Coverage focuses on the issues affecting financial institutions, payments providers, government and regulatory affairs teams, policymakers and other professionals operating in a rapid…
- [Political Data Alerts](https://www.benchmarkanalytics.com.au/political-data-alerts.md) - Fast, rigorous data — the moment it matters. When government, industry, or economic statistics move, Political Data Alerts gives you the number, the context, and the comparison — before the news cycle catches up. Built for government relations professionals, corporate affairs teams, journalists, an…
- [Spectator Articles](https://www.benchmarkanalytics.com.au/spectator-articles.md) - The Spectator Australia Contributions to the Flat White section What the K’gari dingoes need Nick Hossack | Spectator | 26 June 2025 I’m a bit jaded because a ranger on Fraser Island (renamed K’gari by the Qld Labor government in 2023) has fined me $483 because a local island dingo clawed the lock…
- [Australian Superannuation & Regulation](https://www.benchmarkanalytics.com.au/superannuation.md) - Benchmark Analytics provides independent analysis of the politics, regulation and economics of Australian superannuation. Coverage focuses on the issues affecting superannuation funds, financial institutions, government and regulatory affairs teams, policymakers and other professionals operating in…

## Posts
- [Australians over 65 now hold 773,000 jobs](https://www.benchmarkanalytics.com.au/australians-over-65-now-hold-773-000-jobs.md) - Australians aged 65 and over held around 773,000 jobs in June 2026, up from just 160,000 in 1996. Their share of all filled jobs has risen from 1.8 to 4.7 per cent.
- [Consolidation and rise of the superannuation mega-funds](https://www.benchmarkanalytics.com.au/rise-australian-super-mega-funds.md) - Australia had 130 APRA-regulated super funds in June 2021. Five years later there are just 66, while member benefits have risen to $3.2 trillion and the top ten funds now control more than 60 per cent.
- [Women hold more than 50% of all jobs in Australia](https://www.benchmarkanalytics.com.au/women-majority-australian-filled-jobs.md) - Women now hold 50.2 per cent of Australian filled jobs. But men still hold more main jobs — the difference is explained by women’s much greater share of secondary employment.
- [Investors now demand more than 5% to lend to the US Government for 30 years](https://www.benchmarkanalytics.com.au/investors-now-demand-more-than-5-to-lend-to-the-us-government-for-30-years.md) - Something unusual is happening in the world's most important bond market. Investors now demand more than 5% a year to lend money to the US Government for 30 years, with the 30-year Treasury yield recently reaching its highest level in almost two decades. A Treasury bond is simply an IOU issued by t…
- [Jim Chalmers has a fair criticism of Qld Government](https://www.benchmarkanalytics.com.au/jim-chalmers-has-a-fair-criticism-of-qld-government.md) - Federal Treasurer Jim Chalmers is hardly a neutral observer of Queensland politics, but on the state's finances he has a point. Queensland is reportedly on the brink of another S&P credit-rating downgrade. Chalmers described the prospect as “very troubling”, arguing that Queensland's fiscal positio…
- [Snapshot of central bank policy interest rates](https://www.benchmarkanalytics.com.au/central-bank-policy-interest-rates.md) - Central banks are moving in markedly different directions. Australia has raised its policy rate by 0.75 percentage points over the past year, while the US has cut by the same amount.
- [Australia’s industrial strikes have not disappeared — but they have collapsed](https://www.benchmarkanalytics.com.au/australias-long-decline-in-industrial-disputes.md) - Australia’s industrial disputes data show a recent lift in activity, but the deeper story is the extraordinary long-run decline in strikes and working days lost since the 1980s.
- [Australia’s governments do not have a revenue problem. They have a spending addiction.](https://www.benchmarkanalytics.com.au/australias-governments-do-not-have-a-revenue-problem-they-have-a-spending-addiction.md) - New ABS Government Finance Statistics show total government revenue increased by 6.6% in 2025–26, adding $66.5 billion to government coffers. Tax revenue grew even faster, rising 7.0%. Yet government expenses increased by 8.2%, or $84.4 billion. The result was a net operating deficit of $37.8 billi…
- [Housing approvals still below 1.2 million-home target pace](https://www.benchmarkanalytics.com.au/housing-approvals-still-below-1-2-million-home-target-pace.md) - Australia’s housing approval pipeline is recovering, but the latest ABS figures show approvals are still running about 8% below the annual pace implied by the National Housing Accord target.
- [ANZ under Nuno Matos: growth remains a work in progress](https://www.benchmarkanalytics.com.au/anz-nuno-matos-market-growth.md) - ANZ has kept pace with the major banks in investor housing under Nuno Matos, but APRA data show weaker relative growth across business lending, owner-occupied mortgages and deposits.
- [NAB under Andrew Irvine: business banking strong, investor housing the weak spot](https://www.benchmarkanalytics.com.au/nab-andrew-irvine-market-growth.md) - More than two years into Andrew Irvine’s tenure, NAB is outperforming the banking system in business lending but losing ground in investor mortgages.
- [Westpac under Anthony Miller: business growth strong, housing still lagging](https://www.benchmarkanalytics.com.au/westpac-anthony-miller-market-growth.md) - Westpac is growing strongly in business lending and deposits under CEO Anthony Miller, but APRA data show it continues to lose relative ground in housing.
- [Strong growth in instant payments - NPP](https://www.benchmarkanalytics.com.au/australia-payments-shift-july-2026.md) - Australia’s payments transformation continues, with rapid growth in real-time NPP transfers, rising card spending, fewer ATM withdrawals and another sharp fall in cheque use.
- [The Productivity Commission just updated its dashboard - not good](https://www.benchmarkanalytics.com.au/the-productivity-commission-just-updated-its-dashboard-not-good.md) - The Productivity Commission’s latest dashboard shows whole-economy labour productivity fell 0.2% over the year to June 2026. Labour productivity measures the amount of economic output produced for each hour worked. More concerning is the longer-term result. Over the past five years, Australian labo…
- [US gas prices remain above $4 with 58 days to midterms](https://www.benchmarkanalytics.com.au/us-gas-prices-2026-midterm-elections.md) - US regular gasoline remains above $4 a gallon. With 58 days until the midterms, prices are 33% above their level immediately before the 2024 election.
- [Why does public administration capture 8.8% of employee compensation from 5.9% of hours worked?](https://www.benchmarkanalytics.com.au/public-administration-compensation-hours-worked.md) - Public Administration and Safety accounts for less than 6% of Australian hours worked but almost 9% of employee compensation — the largest positive gap of any industry. The statistic raises an intriguing question about why.
- [Australia’s jobs boom is increasingly a care-and-government story](https://www.benchmarkanalytics.com.au/australia-jobs-boom-care-government.md) - Australia added about 1.29 million main jobs between June 2022 and June 2026. Health, education and public administration accounted for roughly 689,000 of them — 53.4 per cent of the total increase.
- [One-quarter of the economy generated almost half of the growth in hours worked under Labor](https://www.benchmarkanalytics.com.au/labor-non-market-hours-growth.md) - Nearly half of the increase in hours worked since Labor came to office has occurred in health, education and public administration. ABS data shows non-market hours grew 18.9%, compared with 7.6% across the market economy.
- [Background: Armaguard designation](https://www.benchmarkanalytics.com.au/understanding-armaguard-cash-distribution-designation.md) - The RBA has brought Armaguard inside Australia’s new Cash Distribution Framework only a week after the legislation commenced. Here is why cash distribution is under pressure, what the new powers do and what the change means for Australians.
- [Understanding the ING prudential reporting failure](https://www.benchmarkanalytics.com.au/understanding-the-ing-prudential-reporting-failure.md) - ING Australia appeared to hold a very large liquidity buffer, with published Liquidity Coverage Ratios around 160%. APRA has now revealed the true position was materially weaker and at times below the prudential minimum.
- [Australia’s productivity gap with the US is becoming embarrassing](https://www.benchmarkanalytics.com.au/australia-us-productivity-gap-2026.md) - Australia and the United States are recording similar GDP growth, but they are getting there very differently. Australian productivity fell over the year to June while US productivity rose strongly.
- [Very interesting change to Australia's securitisation market structure](https://www.benchmarkanalytics.com.au/very-interesting-change-to-australias-securitisation-market-structure.md) - Securitisation is the process of pooling loans — such as mortgages, car loans or business loans — inside a special purpose vehicle, which then issues asset-backed securities to investors. The repayments on the underlying loans ultimately support the interest and principal paid to those investors. R…
- [Which political party is best for business investment?](https://www.benchmarkanalytics.com.au/which-political-party-is-best-for-business-investment.md) - Private sector business investment is one of the hardest economic indicators to fake. Surveys can tell us how businesses say they feel, but investment tells us what firms actually do with their money. When businesses spend on machinery, buildings, engineering work and intellectual property, they ar…
- [How Australia’s economy has changed](https://www.benchmarkanalytics.com.au/how-australias-economy-has-changed.md) - Australia’s economy today looks markedly different from the economy of two decades ago. Gross value added measures the value an industry creates after subtracting the goods and services it uses in production. Comparing each industry’s gross value added with the total therefore provides a simple mea…
- [Australia’s $288 billion-a-day financial plumbing](https://www.benchmarkanalytics.com.au/australias-288-billion-a-day-financial-plumbing.md) - The RBA’s RTGS system settles about $288 billion per business day. This explainer shows what that figure means, why it is so large, and how it compares with NPP payments, card spending, wages and GDP.
- [GDP Released: Australian productivity has barely increased in a decade](https://www.benchmarkanalytics.com.au/australian-productivity-barely-increased-decade.md) - Australia's economy grew 0.4% in the June quarter, but hours worked increased by exactly the same amount. GDP per hour worked remains only around 1% above its June 2016 level.
- [Australia is borrowing from abroad to pay higher fuel prices](https://www.benchmarkanalytics.com.au/australia-borrowing-abroad-higher-fuel-prices.md) - Australia is paying substantially more overseas for imported fuel. The fuel is quickly consumed, but the foreign liabilities used to help finance Australia’s external deficit can remain.
- [Could Macquarie become Australia’s fourth-largest mortgage bank by 2030?](https://www.benchmarkanalytics.com.au/macquarie-anz-mortgages-deposits-2030.md) - Macquarie Bank is growing its Australian mortgage and deposit books at more than 20 per cent a year. APRA data suggest that, if recent percentage growth rates persist, it could overtake ANZ’s principal banking entity around 2030.
- [Victoria is approving more homes than NSW despite having 1.5 million fewer people](https://www.benchmarkanalytics.com.au/victoria-housing-approvals-outpace-nsw.md) - Victoria approved more dwellings than New South Wales in July despite having around 1.5 million fewer residents. On a per-capita basis, its approval rate is approximately 25 per cent higher.
- [Queensland's government budget starting to get out of control](https://www.benchmarkanalytics.com.au/queensland-government-budget-out-of-control.md) - Queensland recorded an $8.4 billion operating deficit and $19.1 billion of net borrowing in 2025–26, giving it the largest borrowing requirement relative to revenue of any Australian state or territory.
- [Investor housing credit hits the brakes as tax and rate changes bite](https://www.benchmarkanalytics.com.au/investor-housing-credit-hits-the-brakes-as-tax-and-rate-changes-bite.md) - The first clear signs of Australia's investor housing slowdown are now appearing in the stock of mortgage credit. Reserve Bank of Australia data released on 31 August show investor housing credit grew just 0.46% in July, around 0.3 percentage points slower than in June and the weakest monthly resul…
- [Australia's two-speed business economy: mining profits surge while retail profits slump](https://www.benchmarkanalytics.com.au/australia-two-speed-business-economy-mining-retail-profits.md) - Australian company profits rose in the June quarter, but the headline disguises a sharp divide: mining profits surged 6.8% while retail profits slumped 5.2%.
- [Macquarie's housing loan book just grew 25.9% in 12 months](https://www.benchmarkanalytics.com.au/macquarie-quarter-australia-mortgage-growth.md) - Macquarie added $38.2 billion to its housing loan book over the year to July 2026, accounting for almost a quarter of the increase across Australia's banking system.
- [Household spending rebound makes the RBA’s job harder](https://www.benchmarkanalytics.com.au/household-spending-rba-inflation-july-2026.md) - Household spending has risen strongly for three consecutive months, with discretionary expenditure now growing faster than spending on essentials.
- [Labor’s investment boom survives a data-centre hangover](https://www.benchmarkanalytics.com.au/business-investment-capex-data-centres-june-2026.md) - Private capital expenditure fell in June, but the headline masks strong annual growth, rising investment intentions and an extraordinary data-centre investment cycle.
- [The UK economy looks very weak](https://www.benchmarkanalytics.com.au/the-uk-economy-looks-very-weak.md) - Australia and Britain face many of the same economic problems, but the latest data show Australia currently has the stronger economy — accompanied by a more difficult inflation problem. Australian real GDP grew 2.5% over the year to the March quarter, compared with just 0.9% in Britain. Australia's…
- [Dark stats - Key findings from the latest mortality data](https://www.benchmarkanalytics.com.au/key-findings-latest-australian-mortality-data.md) - The latest ABS data show a growing number of deaths as Australia ages, but declining underlying mortality rates across most major measures.
- [Mining’s skills problem is unusually specialised](https://www.benchmarkanalytics.com.au/mining-specialist-skills-shortage-abs.md) - New ABS data shows that mining’s workforce problem is not simply a shortage of labour. Among mining businesses experiencing skill shortages, 77.3% say specialist skills or knowledge are required — the highest proportion of any industry.
- [Australia versus America: ten numbers that tell a different economic story](https://www.benchmarkanalytics.com.au/australia-versus-america-ten-numbers-that-tell-a-different-economic-story.md) - Australia and the United States currently have remarkably similar headline inflation and wage growth, but beneath those numbers the two economies are moving in quite different directions. July consumer price inflation was 3.5% in Australia and 3.4% in the United States, while wages increased by exa…
- [The strange death of Australia’s standard variable mortgage rate](https://www.benchmarkanalytics.com.au/standard-variable-mortgage-rate-gap-australia.md) - RBA Table F5 is a monthly dataset of indicator lending rates. In plain English, that means it reports the headline rates lenders advertise across products such as small business lending, housing loans and credit cards. Within the mortgage series, two terms matter. A standard variable rate is the le…
- [Australians make three debit card payments for every credit card payment](https://www.benchmarkanalytics.com.au/australia-debit-credit-card-payments-comparison.md) - Australians make more than three debit-card payments for every credit-card payment, but international payment habits vary enormously.
- [Australia has fast payments — but other countries use them much more](https://www.benchmarkanalytics.com.au/australia-fast-payments-international-comparison.md) - Australians made 1.66 billion fast payments in 2024, but BIS data show usage per person remains well below several international leaders.
- [Australians make 768 cashless payments a year](https://www.benchmarkanalytics.com.au/australia-cashless-payments-per-person-bis-2024.md) - New BIS data show Australians make more than two cashless payments per person every day, with cards accounting for three-quarters of transactions.
- [Home insurance premiums keep rising — but APRA data show no profit windfall](https://www.benchmarkanalytics.com.au/home-insurance-premiums-apra-profit-2026.md) - Home insurance is becoming increasingly expensive, but new APRA data show the householders insurance service result fell from a $1.15 billion profit to a small loss in 2025–26.
- [Mental health claims are becoming a superannuation cost problem](https://www.benchmarkanalytics.com.au/mental-health-tpd-superannuation-insurance-costs.md) - Mental-health-related TPD claims are surging, placing pressure on insurance premiums inside superannuation and creating a new tension with retirement adequacy.
- [Private health costs are rising — but insurer profits fell 16.6%](https://www.benchmarkanalytics.com.au/private-health-insurer-profits-claims-premiums-2026.md) - APRA data show private health insurance claims rose faster than premium revenue in 2025–26, while industry after-tax profit fell 16.6%.
- [Private health cover grows as hospital out-of-pocket costs jump 7.5%](https://www.benchmarkanalytics.com.au/private-health-cover-out-of-pocket-costs-june-2026.md) - More Australians are holding private health insurance, but APRA data show average hospital out-of-pocket costs rose 7.5% over the year to $513.24 per episode.
- [How concentrated is Australia's MySuper market?](https://www.benchmarkanalytics.com.au/mysuper-market-concentration-hhi.md) - Australia’s MySuper market contains 52 products, but assets are much more concentrated than that headline number suggests. The ten largest products hold 74.5% of MySuper assets, while the market has the same concentration as roughly 13 equally sized products.
- [What do we know about superannuation fees? Some core data](https://www.benchmarkanalytics.com.au/superannuation-fees-core-data.md) - APRA publishes detailed information on individual superannuation funds and their basic superannuation products (called MySuper products). Bringing those datasets together provides a useful starting point for understanding how large Australia's major funds are, what they charge members for administr…
- [Three (blunt) politically relevant messages from the latest RBA Minutes](https://www.benchmarkanalytics.com.au/rba-minutes-interest-rates-inflation-housing-august-2026.md) - The latest RBA Minutes contain three unusually clear political messages on interest rates, Australia’s productivity problem and the weakening housing market.
- [HBF collects almost half of Western Australia's private health insurance premiums](https://www.benchmarkanalytics.com.au/western-australia-private-health-insurance-market-concentration.md) - APRA's private health insurance performance data provides premium revenue for individual insurers across each state and territory. Benchmark Analytics calculations show substantial differences in market concentration across Australia. The standout among the larger states is Western Australia, where…
- [Five health insurers collect 80% of Australia's private health insurance premiums](https://www.benchmarkanalytics.com.au/private-health-insurance-market-share-australia.md) - APRA's latest private health insurance data provides financial performance information for individual insurers, including premium revenue by state and territory. Summing those state figures shows Australia's 29 private health insurers collected $31.10 billion in health insurance premium revenue in…
- [Australian households - second most indebted in the world](https://www.benchmarkanalytics.com.au/australian-households-second-most-indebted-in-the-world.md) - The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) provides internationally comparable data on household credit, debt servicing and residential property prices. Together, the three measures provide a useful picture of both household debt and the value of the housing assets sitting behind it. At the end o…
- [Australia has more workers, but barely more work](https://www.benchmarkanalytics.com.au/australia-has-more-workers-but-barely-more-work.md) - The ABS Labour Force Survey shows employment fell by 15,800 people in July, while the unemployment rate increased to 4.5%. Monthly hours worked fell more sharply, down 0.6%. The more revealing figures, however, are over the past year. Australia has 191,900 more employed people than in July 2025, an…
- [Canberra workers among the few to beat inflation](https://www.benchmarkanalytics.com.au/canberra-workers-among-the-few-to-beat-inflation.md) - The ABS Wage Price Index measures changes in wage rates for a fixed basket of jobs, unaffected by changes in employment composition, hours worked or employee characteristics. In addition to a national figure, the ABS breaks down wage changes by state and territory and by industry sector. To calcula…
- [Wage numbers released - two ugly statistics for the Government](https://www.benchmarkanalytics.com.au/wage-numbers-released-two-ugly-statistics-for-the-government.md) - The ABS Wage Price Index rose 0.8 per cent in the June quarter 2026 and 3.2 per cent over the year. Over the last year, however, inflation has increased by 3.9%, so real wages have fallen. In fact, workers have still not recovered the loss in real wages since around the time the Albanese Government…
- [Scary - absolute decline in number of businesses that employ people](https://www.benchmarkanalytics.com.au/scary-absolute-decline-in-number-of-businesses-that-employ-people.md) - The ABS Counts of Australian Businesses publication measures the stock of actively trading businesses in Australia, together with business entries, exits and survival. The latest release, published on 18 August, covers the four financial years from July 2022 to June 2026. The figures are drawn from…
- [NAB reveals a NIM 26 basis points below CBA](https://www.benchmarkanalytics.com.au/nab-reveals-a-nim-26-basis-points-below-cba.md)
- [Henry Tax Review - Revisited](https://www.benchmarkanalytics.com.au/henry-tax-review-revisited.md)
- [Home loan data - mixed picture post abolition of negative gearing](https://www.benchmarkanalytics.com.au/home-loan-data-mixed-picture-post-abolition-of-negative-gearing.md) - The Australian Bureau of Statistics has reported that the number of new home loans fell 5.4% in the June quarter, to 134,225. The value of new lending fell 5.2%, or $5.4 billion, following a 3.4% decline in the March quarter. Investors led the quarterly retreat. Investor loan numbers fell 8.6%, the…
- [New industry pay data gives some insight into pay gap between men and women](https://www.benchmarkanalytics.com.au/new-industry-pay-data-gives-some-insight-into-pay-gap-between-men-and-women.md) - The ABS's May 2026 Average Weekly Earnings release put the headline gender pay gap in full-time ordinary time earnings at 11.3%, its lowest recorded level, down marginally from 11.5% in November 2025. Full-time adult ordinary time earnings reached $2,083.70 in May, with six-month growth of just 1.6…
- [How bad is the US fiscal position?](https://www.benchmarkanalytics.com.au/how-bad-is-the-us-fiscal-position.md) - In assessing the fiscal position of the US Federal Government, total government revenue provides a useful benchmark for assessing vulnerability because it measures the government’s own capacity to fund its commitments on current tax settings. The latest data are striking. In Q1 2026, federal outlay…
- [9% rise in loan impairment charges not hurting CBA financially](https://www.benchmarkanalytics.com.au/9-rise-in-loan-impairment-charges-not-hurting-cba-financially.md) - CBA's full-year results reveal an incredibly strong underlying banking franchise, with cash net profit after tax (NPAT) rising 7% to nearly $11 billion, despite operating costs increasing 6% and loan impairment expenses rising 9%. The return on equity (ROE) of 14% demonstrates CBA's strength relati…
- [How good is the RBA at hitting the inflation target?](https://www.benchmarkanalytics.com.au/how-good-is-the-rba-at-hitting-the-inflation-target.md) - Australia’s monetary policy framework is built around an inflation target. The RBA seeks to keep consumer price inflation between 2% and 3%, while also pursuing full employment. Its principal tool for influencing inflation is the cash rate: higher interest rates generally restrain spending and infl…
- [AI assesses the RBA decision today - good or bad for Pauline Hanson?](https://www.benchmarkanalytics.com.au/ai-assesses-the-rba-decision-today-good-or-bad-for-pauline-hanson.md) - As expected today, the RBA's Monetary Policy Board left the official cash rate unchanged at 4.35%. Along with the decision, the RBA issued two documents explaining and supporting its assessment. The first provides the brief reasoning behind the decision. The second provides a more thorough assessme…
- [RBA cash rate - predicted to peak in March 2027](https://www.benchmarkanalytics.com.au/rba-cash-rate-predicted-to-peak-in-march-2027.md) - RBA Cash Rate — Market-Implied Pricing (7 Aug 2026) Meeting Date Direction Implied Rate Implied Move 11 Aug 2026 No change 4.35% 0.0bp 29 Sep 2026 No change 4.35% 0.0bp 3 Nov 2026 Increase 4.46% +10.7bp 8 Dec 2026 Increase 4.47% +1.0bp 9 Feb 2027 Increase 4.50% +3.2bp 23 Mar 2027 (peak) Increase 4.…
- [Capital gains tax policy not hurting Westpac's housing investor loans this year](https://www.benchmarkanalytics.com.au/capital-gains-tax-policy-not-hurting-westpacs-housing-investor-loans-this-year.md) - Westpac’s latest quarterly update - released today - shows mortgage demand softening, but the bank’s underlying financial performance — particularly its net interest margin — remains relatively resilient. Average monthly mortgage applications fell to around 29,000 in the June quarter, down 11% from…
- [US inflation update - 3.7% - way above Fed 2% target](https://www.benchmarkanalytics.com.au/us-inflation-update-3-7-way-above-fed-2-target.md) - The latest annualised CPI reading sits at 3.7% (June 2026), with prices running hotter since the US/Iran conflict began — averaging 4.9% annualised over that period, versus 4.2% across 2026 as a whole. The tables below report monthly data but annualise the results by multipling monthly data by 12.…
- [US Gas Price Update - Trump vs Biden & midterms](https://www.benchmarkanalytics.com.au/us-gas-price-update-trump-vs-biden-midterms.md) - The latest weekly US gas price sits at $4.08 (as of 3 August 2026), well above the $3.72 average recorded so far this year. Prices have run even hotter since the US/Iran conflict began in March, averaging $4.02 over that period. Under Trump's second term (20 Jan 2025 – present), the average price h…
- [Signs of stabilisation in female participation in the workforce](https://www.benchmarkanalytics.com.au/signs-of-stabilisation-in-female-participation-in-the-workforce.md) - One of the biggest changes in the Australian labour market over recent decades has been the increasing contribution of women to total hours worked, which incorporates both part-time and full-time work. In June 1986, Australian men as whole (noting, of course, a much smaller population than today) w…
- [Latest data - house building shortfall now 86,000 dwellings](https://www.benchmarkanalytics.com.au/latest-data-house-building-shortfall-now-86-000-dwellings.md) - In October 2022, the Commonwealth government's federal budget introduced the National Housing Accord, setting an initial target of one million new, well-located homes to be built over five years from mid-2024. On 16 August 2023, National Cabinet — comprising the Commonwealth, states and territories…
- [More evidence of the painful death of cheques](https://www.benchmarkanalytics.com.au/more-evidence-of-the-painful-death-of-cheques.md) - The latest Reserve Bank payments data provide further evidence that cheques are next to extinct as a payment instrument in Australia. In June 2026, Australians made just 0.6 million cheque payments. That compares with 1.414 billion card purchases — including 1.084 billion debit card transactions —…
- [Immigration by Prime Minister - the FACTS](https://www.benchmarkanalytics.com.au/immigration-by-prime-minister-the-facts.md) - Immigration is one of the most politically charged numbers in Australian public life. Here are some key facts regarding average immigration levels under various Prime Ministers since 1981. ERP population increase is the growth in Australia's Estimated Resident Population — the ABS's official popula…
- [Trump's tariff policy has not hurt Australian exports - new data](https://www.benchmarkanalytics.com.au/trumps-tariff-policy-has-not-hurt-australian-exports-new-data.md) - One year after the United States announced sweeping new tariffs on imported goods, there is little evidence that Australia's merchandise exports have been hit, partly because many goods are exempted. ABS merchandise trade data released today shows Australia's total goods exports increased from $45.…
- [Former Albanese adviser has a point on growth](https://www.benchmarkanalytics.com.au/former-albanese-adviser-has-a-point-on-growth-2.md) - A former economics adviser to the Prime Minister, Alex Sanchez, has criticised the government for lacking a pro-growth mindset. The most commonly cited measure of economic growth is GDP per capita, as it adjusts growth for population increase. A purer measure is GDP per hour worked, but politicians…
- [How did Alan Joyce perform in reality?](https://www.benchmarkanalytics.com.au/how-did-alan-joyce-perform-in-reality.md) - "Very well" in fact. Alan Joyce ran Qantas from 28 November 2008 to 5 September 2023. Putting aside the controversy and politics and just comparing Qantas's share price against the S&P/ASX 200 we get a realistic picture. 28 Nov 2008 5 Sep 2023 Total return CAGR Qantas (QAN.AX) $2.47 $5.64 +128.3% 5…
- [Political Data Alert | Unemployment Rate](https://www.benchmarkanalytics.com.au/political-data-alert-unemployment-rate.md) - The ABS has released the latest labour force figures.
- [Banks have closed 2,489 bank branches since 2017](https://www.benchmarkanalytics.com.au/banks-have-closed-2-489-bank-branches-since-2017.md) - This Benchmark Analytics report details key long-term trends in branch and ATM numbers in Australia. For non-clients, a PDF copy of the report is available for purchase. (Journalists can obtain a free copy of the report.) Copies are available by emailing Benchmark Analytics at info@benchmarkanalyti…
- [Ken Henry tells Treasurer to get going on tax reform](https://www.benchmarkanalytics.com.au/ken.md)
- [Union strike action - trend decline is positive](https://www.benchmarkanalytics.com.au/union-strike-action-trend-decline-is-positive.md)
- [Average house price now over $1 million](https://www.benchmarkanalytics.com.au/average-house-price-now-over-1-million.md)
- [Business turnover still weak - latest turnover figures released](https://www.benchmarkanalytics.com.au/which-industries-are-booming-and-those-busting-2.md) - Data alert | Business Turnover Indicator - April 2025 Another soft monthly turnover result across industries confirms the economy remains subdued, increasing the likelihood that the Reserve Bank will deliver a 50 basis point interest rate cut at its upcoming meeting scheduled for 7-8 July. The Aust…
- [Business conditions turn negative](https://www.benchmarkanalytics.com.au/business-conditions-turn-negative.md)
- [A glimpse at real productivity](https://www.benchmarkanalytics.com.au/a-glimpse-are-real-productivity.md)
- [Have rents really gone up a lot? - Data provides new perspective](https://www.benchmarkanalytics.com.au/have-rents-really-gone-up-a-lot-data-provides-new-perspective.md)
- [The heart of political polarisation - in one chart](https://www.benchmarkanalytics.com.au/the-heart-of-political-polarisation-in-one-chart.md)
- [At an avg. wage of $211k, mine workers getting a bit greedy](https://www.benchmarkanalytics.com.au/at-an-avg-wage-of-211k-mine-workers-getting-a-bit-greedy.md)
- [Top 20 goods export destinations](https://www.benchmarkanalytics.com.au/top-20-goods-export-destinations.md)
- [Just one chart - offers a nostalgic look back at the GFC](https://www.benchmarkanalytics.com.au/just-one-chart-offers-a-nostalgic-look-back-at-the-gfc.md)
- [Consumers closing their wallets but restaurants still doing well](https://www.benchmarkanalytics.com.au/consumers-closing-their-wallets-but-restaurants-still-doing-well.md)
- [Might be boring...but critical to living standards](https://www.benchmarkanalytics.com.au/might-be-boring-but-critical-to-living-standards.md)
- [Miniscule growth & Productivity down again](https://www.benchmarkanalytics.com.au/miniscule-growth-productivity-down-again.md)
- [ASIC's real motivation - here is 2 minute summary & analysis](https://www.benchmarkanalytics.com.au/asics-real-motivation-here-is-2-minute-summary-analysis.md)
- [Trump Tariff Threat Sparks an Aussie Gold Rush](https://www.benchmarkanalytics.com.au/trump-tariff-threat-sparks-an-aussie-gold-rush.md)
- [Tax revenue through the roof & link to Roy Morgan finding](https://www.benchmarkanalytics.com.au/tax-revenue-through-the-roof-link-to-roy-morgan-finding.md)
- [RBA Board minutes - AI assessment](https://www.benchmarkanalytics.com.au/rba-board-minutes-ai-assessment.md)
- [Sales-to-Wage ratio in focus- winning industries](https://www.benchmarkanalytics.com.au/sales-to-wage-ratio-in-focus-winning-industries.md)
- [Latest on commodity price movements](https://www.benchmarkanalytics.com.au/latest-on-commodity-price-movements.md)
- [The power of Western Australia in one graph](https://www.benchmarkanalytics.com.au/the-power-of-western-australia-in-one-graph.md)
- [Despite popular belief, banking markets not too concentrated](https://www.benchmarkanalytics.com.au/despite-popular-belief-banking-markets-not-too-concentrated.md)
- [Westpac CEO not mucking around](https://www.benchmarkanalytics.com.au/westpac-ceo-not-mucking-around.md)
- [Another chart damning the Victorian Labor Government](https://www.benchmarkanalytics.com.au/another-chart-damning-the-victorian-labor-government.md)
- [How superannuation is being invested - on your behalf](https://www.benchmarkanalytics.com.au/how-superannuation-is-invested-on-your-behalf.md)
- [The unrelenting rise of the disability worker](https://www.benchmarkanalytics.com.au/the-unrelenting-rise-of-the-disability-worker.md)
- [Top 20 occupations by growth rates over 1, 15 and 30 year periods](https://www.benchmarkanalytics.com.au/top-20-occupations-by-growth-rates-over-1-15-and-30-year-periods.md)
- [WA workforce churning more than other states](https://www.benchmarkanalytics.com.au/wa-workforce-churning-more-than-other-states.md)
- [Covid impact on workforce experience](https://www.benchmarkanalytics.com.au/covid-impact-on-workforce-experience.md)
- [Power of one word - Michele Bullock Press Conference](https://www.benchmarkanalytics.com.au/power-of-one-word-michele-bullock-press-conference.md)
- [CBA share price defying gravity](https://www.benchmarkanalytics.com.au/cba-share-price-defying-gravity.md)
- [Frightening increase in public sector wages bill](https://www.benchmarkanalytics.com.au/frightening-increase-in-public-sector-wages-bill.md)
- [Victorian State Budget - Short briefing note](https://www.benchmarkanalytics.com.au/victorian-state-budget-short-briefing-note.md)
- [What are they saying? Ten perspectives](https://www.benchmarkanalytics.com.au/what-are-they-saying-ten-perspectives.md)
- ["Clear inflection point" - AI assessment the RBA cash rate decision](https://www.benchmarkanalytics.com.au/clear-inflection-point-ai-assessment-the-rba-cash-rate-decision.md)
- [2.6 vs. 2.8 kg chickens - why?](https://www.benchmarkanalytics.com.au/2-6-vs-2-8-kg-chickens-why.md) - Data alert | Meat production data released today Today, the ABS released its quarterly Livestock Products publication, which provides figures on the number of animals slaughtered and the amount of meat produced. By dividing total meat production (in kilograms) by the number of animals or birds slau…
- [RBA Rates Decision - one additional chart for background](https://www.benchmarkanalytics.com.au/rba-rates-additional-chart-for-background.md)
- [RBA cash rate decision Tuesday - history & forecast](https://www.benchmarkanalytics.com.au/rba-cash-rate-decision-tuesday-history-forecast.md) - Event alert | RBA cash rate decision on Tuesday The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will hold its next monetary policy meeting on Tuesday this week, 20 May 2025, to set the Official Cash Rate (OCR)—the benchmark interest rate that influences borrowing costs across the economy. As of today, the cash…
- [Forecasts - who is getting more miserable and who less?](https://www.benchmarkanalytics.com.au/forecasts-who-is-getting-more-miserable-and-who-less.md) - Updated | Misery Index forecasts in 2030 | Eastern Europe doing well Yesterday I posted Misery Index estimates for 2025 and flagged that I would follow up with forecasts for 2030. Today’s update delivers on that promise, with three new charts to complete the picture. Chart 1 presents the average Mi…
- [How miserable do you feel?](https://www.benchmarkanalytics.com.au/how-mis.md) - Updated | Misery Index updated for 2025 data A commonly used and straightforward measure of a country's relative economic pain is known as the Misery Index. It involves a simple calculation: the addition of a country's unemployment rate and its inflation rate. Both indicators are undesirable—so the…
- [Is he really Captain Chaos?](https://www.benchmarkanalytics.com.au/is-he-really-captain-chaos.md) - Data alert | The VIX 'Fear Index' since Trump's tariff Liberation Day The most widely cited metric for measuring economic fear is the VIX—short for Volatility Index. It tracks expected volatility in the US stock market, specifically the S&P 500, which represents the 500 largest publicly listed comp…
- [Intergenerational equity - one indicator looking ok](https://www.benchmarkanalytics.com.au/intergenerational-equity-one-indicator-looking-ok.md) - Data alert | ABS Lending Commitments released A frequently overlooked yet revealing economic indicator is the proportion of new home loan commitments going to first home buyers. It is a deceptively simple statistic, yet it provides important insight into intergenerational equity, market accessibili…
- [Australian Treasurers - Ranked by three key labour force metrics](https://www.benchmarkanalytics.com.au/australian-treasurers-ranked-by-tkey-labour-force-metrics.md) - Data Alert | ABS Labour Force released Key figures In seasonally adjusted terms, in April 2025: * Unemployment rate remained at 4.1%. * Participation rate increased to 67.1%. * Employment increased to 14,642,700. * Employment to population ratio increased to 64.4%. * Underemployment rate increased…
- [Sign of India's rise - fastest growing house prices](https://www.benchmarkanalytics.com.au/india-fastest-growing-house-prices-in-last-15-years.md) - Data alert | Country comparisons of residential property prices + Investment Tips below. In a sign of its growing economic strength, India has outpaced advanced economies in residential property price growth since 2009. It tops the global rankings, followed by Chile and Estonia. The chart below doe…
- [Lucky escape - Albanese avoided election pain on real wages](https://www.benchmarkanalytics.com.au/luck.md) - Data Alert | Wage Price Index for March Qtr 2025 The ABS has released the latest Wage Price Index. This is a highly anticipated release because it provides the benchmark against which governments are judged on whether they are delivering real wage increases. Increasing real wages was Labor’s primar…
- [Business visitors to Australia - positive news](https://www.benchmarkanalytics.com.au/business-visitors-positive-growth-over-last-12-months.md) - Data Alert | Arrivals and departures of business visitors to Australia One way to assess the extent of Australia’s involvement in international business—and business activity more generally—is to track trends in the number of people visiting the country for business purposes. This is an underapprec…
- [Home building approvals decline in latest month](https://www.benchmarkanalytics.com.au/home-building-approvals-decline-in-latest-month.md) - Data Alert | Building Approvals for March 2025 The total number of dwellings approved fell 8.8 per cent in March, to 15,220 - based on seasonally adjusted data. However, over the year to March 25, approvals are up 13.4%. Declines were seen across all dwelling types in March with unit approvals down…
- [Factional balance of Albanese's new Cabinet](https://www.benchmarkanalytics.com.au/factional-balance-of-albaneses-new-cabinet.md) - ALP Left faction has balance of power in Albanese Cabinet. Factional alignments within the ALP are often categorized as "Left" or "Right," though there are also sub-factions and independent alignments. It is not always clear which member of parliament belongs to which faction, and it is common that…
- [Economy | 15 year comparison - industry winners & losers](https://www.benchmarkanalytics.com.au/business-turnover-fifteen-year-industry-comparison.md) - In yesterday's post, I published a chart showing changes in business turnover over the past year, broken down by both broad industry groups and sub-groups. Today’s chart covers the same industries but shifts the focus to a fifteen-year comparison, offering a look at major structural change in the e…
- [Liberal leadership | Andrew Robb makes important contribution](https://www.benchmarkanalytics.com.au/liberal-leadership-andrew-robb-makes-important-contribution.md) - Former Minister and Liberal Party State Director Andrew Robb’s opinion article on the election result is worth reading, particularly in light of the Liberal leadership contest set to play out this week. Robb essentially argues that the party need not overreact to the result—it was all Trump’s fault…
- [Which industries are booming...and those busting?](https://www.benchmarkanalytics.com.au/which-industries-are-booming-and-those-busting.md) - The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) publishes a high-quality data series titled the Monthly Business Turnover Indicator. These statistics offer insight into the short-term movements in economic activity across selected industries. Derived from Business Activity Statement (BAS) data submitted…
- [Diagnosing the Liberal's women problem](https://www.benchmarkanalytics.com.au/diagnosing-the-liberals-women-problem.md) - News reports have suggested that the 'moderate' wing of the Liberal Party is on the verge of splitting and forming a new political party. Those on the Liberal 'Right' are convinced the party was too wishy-washy in its policy prescriptions and should have been bolder—specifically, by outright opposi…
- ["He Cuts, You Pay" - Explained](https://www.benchmarkanalytics.com.au/he-cuts-you-pay-explained.md) - A post helping to explain the Australian election
- [Westpac & NAB - difference has emerged on mortgage risk](https://www.benchmarkanalytics.com.au/westpac-nab-difference-has-emerged-on-mortgage-risk-copy.md) - Australian banks are amongst the most profitable in the world. But they have significant differences.
- [Election | Analysis confirms Liberals have to address women & environment](https://www.benchmarkanalytics.com.au/twenty-most-popular-politicians.md) - Australian election analysis
- [Employment-to-population ratio at near record high](https://www.benchmarkanalytics.com.au/workforce-participation-at-record-highs.md) - Analysis of the Australian employment situation.
- [Productivity | the single statistic ringing alarm bells](https://www.benchmarkanalytics.com.au/productivity-the-single-statistic-ringing-alarm-bells.md) - A positive development since the emphatic Labor win at the election is the renewed discussion about the potential for productivity-enhancing economic reforms. Encouragingly, this is not being ruled out by anyone. The Treasurer has colourfully noted that the primary economic task for the first Labor…
- [This may help explain Labor's win](https://www.benchmarkanalytics.com.au/this-may-help-explain-labors-win.md) - It is easy to get bogged down in complex explanations as to why Labor had an historic Federal election win. No doubt a contributing factor is revealed in the chart below. Since 1978, the average unemployment rate in Australia has been 6.19%. Of all our Prime Ministers, Albanese has delivered the lo…
- [This may help explain Labor's win](https://www.benchmarkanalytics.com.au/this-may-help-explain-labors-win-2.md) - It is easy to get bogged down in complex explanations as to why Labor had an historic Federal election win. No doubt a contributing factor is revealed in the chart below. Since 1978, the average unemployment rate in Australia has been 6.19%. Of all our Prime Ministers, Albanese has delivered the lo…
- [Macquarie Bank dominating growth in owner occupied housing lending](https://www.benchmarkanalytics.com.au/macquarie-bank-dominating-growth.md) - Over the last 12 months, Macquarie has grown its mortgage lending market share by 0.7%, more than three times faster than second fastest, Bendigo. Westpac, NAB, CBA have lost market share.
- [Insurance prices up 44.1% in Adelaide under Albanese](https://www.benchmarkanalytics.com.au/insurance-prices-up-441-in-adelaide.md) - Digging into the quarterly CPI allows a more specific identification of cost of living pressures. The chart below shows the top and bottom 15 product price changes since Labor elected in May 2022.
- [Westpac winning in business lending](https://www.benchmarkanalytics.com.au/westpac-winning-in-business-lending.md) - Over the last 12 months, Westpac has increased its market share of business banking by 0.7 percentage points, marginally faster than CBA. NAB has lost market share but still has largest share, 21%.
- [Double that of France - 31.5% of Australians born overseas](https://www.benchmarkanalytics.com.au/double-that-of-france-315-of-australians.md) - Data released by the ABS shows that an extraodinary number of Australian residents were born OS, 32.5%. This compares to Germany (19.8%), the UK (17.1%). Of democracies, Australia leads the pack.
- [Inflation under Albanese well above Scott Morrison](https://www.benchmarkanalytics.com.au/inflation-under-albanese-well-above.md) - Since 1959, the average quarterly inflation rate in Australia is 1.1% (4.4% annualised). The chart below calculates averages by PMs. Albanese is right on average, but well above Scott Morrison, 0.6%.

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