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# Dark stats - Key findings from the latest mortality data
- URL: https://www.benchmarkanalytics.com.au/key-findings-latest-australian-mortality-data/
- Published: 2026-08-29T06:15:31.000Z
- Updated: 2026-08-29T06:15:30.000Z
- Description: The latest ABS data show a growing number of deaths as Australia ages, but declining underlying mortality rates across most major measures.
- Author: Nick Hossack
- Tags: Australian mortality data, ABS

The latest ABS Provisional Mortality Statistics provide an unusually useful picture of both current mortality and the longer-term changes taking place in Australia.

There were **73,997 deaths in Australia between January and May 2026**. That was 1.0% more than in the same period of 2025, but 1.3% fewer than in 2024\. In May alone there were 15,897 deaths, down 0.9% from May 2025 and 2.4% from May 2024.

But raw death numbers tell only part of the story.

Australia has a larger and older population than it did a decade ago. Once population age is taken into account, mortality has generally been declining. The age-standardised death rate in May 2026 was **40.3 deaths per 100,000**, compared with 42.2 in May 2025 and 44.0 in May 2024\. Across January to May, age-specific death rates were lower in **every age group** than in both previous years.

The longer 2015–25 data make the distinction especially clear. Australia recorded **188,156 deaths in 2025**, 14.1% more than in 2019\. Yet the average monthly age-standardised death rate was **4.3% lower than in 2019** and the lowest in the 2015–25 series.

Population ageing explains much of that apparent contradiction. Of the 23,309 additional deaths recorded between 2019 and 2025, **86% occurred among Australians aged 75 and over**.

There have also been substantial changes in individual causes of death. Between 2019 and 2025, the average monthly age-standardised mortality rate fell by approximately **27% for ischaemic heart disease, 22% for cerebrovascular disease and 9% for cancer**.

Dementia presents the reverse side of Australia's ageing population. The number of doctor-certified dementia deaths increased by about **21% between 2019 and 2025**, but the age-standardised dementia mortality rate was essentially unchanged.

COVID mortality has also fallen sharply. Doctor-certified COVID deaths declined from **9,846 in 2022 to 1,665 in 2025**. In the first five months of 2026 there were 238 such deaths, 65% fewer than a year earlier.

The broad message from the data is therefore relatively encouraging: Australia is recording more deaths as its population grows and ages, but the underlying risk of death, after allowing for age, has continued to decline.

*Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, Provisional Mortality Statistics, January–May 2026\. Data are provisional and subject to revision.*

Australian mortality — January to May 2026 

| Measure                                   | 2026   | Comparison     |
| ----------------------------------------- | ------ | -------------- |
| Deaths, Jan–May                           | 73,997 | +1.0% vs 2025  |
| Deaths in May                             | 15,897 | −0.9% vs 2025  |
| May age-standardised death rate           | 40.3   | 42.2 in 2025   |
| Doctor-certified COVID deaths, Jan–May    | 238    | −65.2% vs 2025 |
| Doctor-certified dementia deaths, Jan–May | 7,551  | +5.8% vs 2025  |

Age-standardised rate is deaths per 100,000 people, adjusted for differences in population age structure. 

Longer-term mortality trends 

| Measure                               | Latest  | Change         |
| ------------------------------------- | ------- | -------------- |
| Total deaths                          | 188,156 | +14.1% vs 2019 |
| Average monthly age-standardised rate | 41.03   | −4.3% vs 2019  |
| Cancer mortality rate                 | 11.50   | −9.4% vs 2019  |
| Ischaemic heart disease rate          | 2.55    | −27.0% vs 2019 |
| Cerebrovascular disease rate          | 1.80    | −21.6% vs 2019 |
| Dementia deaths                       | 18,602  | +20.8% vs 2019 |
| COVID deaths                          | 1,665   | −83.1% vs 2022 |

Latest longer-term results are for 2025\. Cause-specific figures are doctor-certified deaths. Mortality rates shown are average monthly age-standardised rates calculated from ABS monthly data. Source: ABS Provisional Mortality Statistics.