Forecasts - who is getting more miserable and who less?
Updated | Misery Index forecasts in 2030 | Eastern Europe doing well
Yesterday I posted Misery Index estimates for 2025 and flagged that I would follow up with forecasts for 2030. Today’s update delivers on that promise, with three new charts to complete the picture.
Chart 1 presents the average Misery Index across 70 countries from 2025 to 2030. The trend is encouraging: the global average is forecast to fall from 5.0 in 2025 to 3.9 by 2030. As a reminder, a lower score is better—the Misery Index simply adds together two negatives things: inflation and unemployment. The less of a negative the better.
Chart 2 tracks how each country’s ranking is expected to shift over the five-year period. Yesterday’s post listed and ranked countries from most to least miserable in 2025.
This chart shows how those rankings change by 2030. One of the most striking developments is the projected rise of Eastern Europe. Countries like Bulgaria, Hungary, Poland, Estonia, Romania and Lithuania are all forecast to make substantial gains in ranking. Bulgaria, for example, is expected to improve 23 places in the rankings.
Chart 3 shows the full country rankings forecast for 2030. This complements the 2025 rankings published yesterday and provides a clearer sense of where countries are heading—and how quickly.
