Diagnosing the Liberal's women problem
News reports have suggested that the 'moderate' wing of the Liberal Party is on the verge of splitting and forming a new political party. Those on the Liberal 'Right' are convinced the party was too wishy-washy in its policy prescriptions and should have been bolder—specifically, by outright opposing the 2050 net-zero environmental commitment.
However, all factions agree there is a major problem with the women’s vote. How to address this is at the core of the current leadership battle between Liberal Deputy Susan Ley and Shadow Treasurer Angus Taylor.
Exit polling suggests women have indeed abandoned the Liberals once again, despite there being no substantive policy difference between the parties on issues commonly regarded as specific to women. One exception was the Coalition’s policy to force public servants back into the office—later reversed halfway through the campaign—which was said to have cost them support among female voters.
Initial assessments suggest the women’s vote may have been even worse than in the 2022 election, when Scott Morrison was heavily damaged by perceptions of his mishandling of the Brittany Higgins alleged rape scandal.
What is not receiving enough attention is the substantive issue of the relatively high proportion of women who are dependent on government spending programmes. Perhaps the Liberal Party’s problem with women is not so much their reputation for supporting a historic patriarchy, but rather a straight hip-pocket issue. Remember, Labor’s election campaign was based on the slogan “He Cuts, You Pay”.
The chart below sheds light on this issue. It shows the disparity in numbers between males and females across key demographic groups that are heavily reliant on government spending. For example, among Australians who receive their primary income from government pensions and allowances, the number of women exceeds the number of men by almost one million (961,187).
Even in the category of those with long-term health conditions—a group one might expect to be evenly split—there are 656,740 more women than men.
Among those undertaking unpaid care of children aged 0–12 years, women outnumber men by 1.4 million. (See chart below for full details.)
These facts must be acknowledged in the current leadership debate, perhaps the real issue is policy perception and not symbolism.
