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# Australia Inc: The copper resources and production gap
- URL: https://www.benchmarkanalytics.com.au/australia-copper-resources-global-demand/
- Published: 2026-09-15T07:34:03.000Z
- Updated: 2026-09-15T07:34:03.000Z
- Description: Australia ranks second globally for economic copper resources but only eighth for production. With global copper demand forecast to rise 50 per cent by 2040, Australia's undeveloped copper endowment is becoming increasingly valuable.
- Author: Nick Hossack
- Tags: Australia, Copper Reserves, Mining, Artificial Intelligence, Supply Constraint

Australia may be sitting on one of the more valuable economic opportunities of the next decade.

On a recent episode of the **Australia Inc. podcast** (available on Apple and Spotify), the discussion turned to copper and the gap between Australia's geological endowment and what we actually produce.

One panelist put it starkly: **“Australia has got the second biggest copper reserves on Earth. But we only rank eighth in overall global production.”**

Geoscience Australia classifies Australia as having the **world's second-largest economic resources of copper**.

Australia holds about **11 per cent of the world's economic copper resources**, yet produces only around **3 per cent of global output**. In 2024, Australia produced about **750,000 tonnes of copper**, ranking eighth globally.

That gap is becoming considerably more interesting because the world is going to need much more copper.

S&P Global estimates global copper demand will increase from about **28 million tonnes in 2025 to 42 million tonnes by 2040** — an increase of roughly **50 per cent**.

Copper is fundamental to electricity networks, renewable generation, electric vehicles, conventional industrial equipment and increasingly data centres and AI infrastructure. Electrification requires conductors, and copper remains exceptionally difficult to replace across many high-value applications.

The problem is that supply cannot simply be switched on.

The International Energy Agency says average global copper ore grades have fallen about **40 per cent since 1991**. Lower grades mean more rock must be mined and processed to produce the same amount of copper.

Major new discoveries have also slowed dramatically. Only around **5 per cent of copper deposits discovered during the past 35 years were found in the past decade**.

And even when a substantial deposit is found, S&P Global estimates that it takes around **17 years on average** to move a new copper mine from discovery into production.

That combination — deteriorating ore quality, fewer discoveries, rising development costs and extremely long lead times — means supply is unlikely to respond quickly to higher prices.

S&P Global estimates that, without major additional investment and supply expansion, the global copper shortfall could reach around **10 million tonnes annually by 2040**.

For Australia, that creates an intriguing question.

We already have the copper.

The economic opportunity is turning more of it into production.

Australia's copper opportunity 

Australia has the copper.  
The world needs much more of it. 

#2

WORLD RANKING

Economic copper resources

#8

WORLD RANKING

Copper production

11%

Australia's share of  
world economic resources

3%

Australia's share of  
world production

GLOBAL COPPER DEMAND 

2025

28m t

→

+50%

2040

42m t

The supply problem 

New copper supply takes years to arrive 

| Average ore grades since 1991        | \~40% lower  |
| ------------------------------------ | ------------ |
| Typical discovery-to-production time | \~17 years   |
| Potential 2040 supply shortfall      | \~10m tonnes |

Sources: Geoscience Australia, Australian Identified Mineral Resources 2025; S&P Global, Copper in the Age of AI (2026); International Energy Agency.